Central bank officials suggest that the deficit rate be at least 4%-www.xunbo.cc

The central bank officials suggested at least fiscal deficit rate can be raised to 4% in the central clear stage to improve fiscal deficit rate, the market is widely expected this year or deficit rate exceeded 3%. Recently, the central bank survey Secretary Sheng Songcheng published academic articles "can greatly improve the fiscal deficit rate of China" put forward: the future period, China’s fiscal deficit will be raised to 4% or even higher level, which can compensate for the reduced tax revenue reduction, effective inverse cycle regulation, better support supply side reforms, and will not give our government bring a higher risk of debt. For this conclusion, a number of experts told the "First Financial Daily" the reporter interviewed agreed, the key deficit rate increase is sustainable to keep government debt. Simply, the fiscal deficit is the difference between the fiscal expenditure over income. In 2015 16200 fiscal deficit Chinese billion yuan. The fiscal deficit rate is deficit GDP (GDP) the proportion of 2015 Chinese deficit rate was 2.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than in 2014. China’s official disclosure of the fiscal deficit rate has been maintained at less than 3%, which is mainly affected by the Treaty of Maastricht (hereinafter referred to as Mayo) proposed the deficit rate of 3% in the control effect. But because the 3% deficit rate to determine the red line is not scientific and reasonable, has been deputy finance minister Zhu Guangyao and many other people think Chinese reflection, need a set of suitable for the national conditions deficit rate and debt rate of the red line. Sheng Songcheng said in the article, the fiscal deficit rate does not exist to determine the unity of the cordon, the level should be considered according to the debt balance and structure, a country’s economic development and the level of interest rates, about 3% warning line does not accord with the actual situation in our country. Then, Shengsong Cheng proposed in this paper, the sustainability of China’s government debt, the debt should be incremental debt balance and combination of every year. The deficit rate simply reflects the ratio of annual debt with the increment of GDP, and the debt balances, interest rates and debt servicing capacity, more meaningful than the deficit rate. Yang Zhiyong China Research Institute of financial strategy of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences told reporters that the fiscal deficit rate should not be fixed to a number, should be adjusted in practice, but must achieve sustainable debt, play a role on macroeconomic stability. Sheng Songcheng said that China’s current government debt is low, short-term debt is less, debt ratio is very low, to maintain rapid economic growth, the government revenue continued to increase, the bond market gradually improve, standardize the issuance of local bonds, financing costs continue to decrease, the state-owned enterprise assets, financing platform for a profit, which enhanced our country the government’s debt capacity. According to the different conditions of the level of interest rates, GDP growth and deficit rate, Shengsong Cheng through the establishment of data model of China’s government debt rate as three estimates, are under the assumption that the government forecast benchmark debt ratio; local government debt increases under government debt ratio; government debt rate scenario analysis. For example, in the case of local government debt increases government debt rate estimates, in 2015 the local government debt limit of $15 trillion, on

央行官员建议财政赤字率至少可提至4%   在中央明确阶段性提高财政赤字率之后,市场普遍预计今年赤字率或突破3%。   近日,央行调查统计司司长盛松成发表学术文章《可较大幅度提高我国财政赤字率》提出:未来一段时期,可将我国的财政赤字率提高到4%,甚至更高水平,由此可以弥补降税带来的财政减收,有效进行逆周期调控,更好地支持供给侧改革,并且不会给我国政府带来较高的偿债风险。   对于这一结论,接受《第一财经日报》记者采访的多位专家表示认同,赤字率提高的关键是要保持政府债务的可持续性。   简单说,财政赤字是财政支出超过收入的差额。2015年中国财政赤字为16200亿元。财政赤字率则是赤字占GDP(国内生产总值)的比重,2015年中国赤字率为2.3%,比2014年提高了0.2个百分点。   我国官方披露的财政赤字率一直保持在3%以内,这主要受马斯特里赫特条约(下称马约)提出赤字率控制在3%的影响。但由于3%赤字率红线确定并不科学合理,已经遭到财政部副部长朱光耀等诸多人士反思,认为中国需要一套适合本国国情的赤字率和负债率红线。   盛松成在文中称,财政赤字率并不存在确定的统一的警戒线,其高低应根据一国的债务余额和结构情况、经济发展状况以及利率水平等进行综合考虑,马约3%的警戒线并不符合我国的实际情况。   紧接着,盛松成在文中提出,分析我国政府债务的可持续性,应该采用债务余额与每年的债务增量相结合的方法。赤字率只是反映了每年债务增量与GDP的比率,而债务余额、利率水平及还本付息能力等指标,比赤字率更有意义。   中国社科院财经战略研究院杨志勇告诉本报记者,财政赤字率不应该固定为某个数字,应该在实践中调整,但必须实现负债的可持续,对宏观经济稳定发挥作用。   盛松成表示,我国目前政府债务余额较低,短期债务较少,外债占比很低,经济保持较快增长,政府收入持续增加,债券市场逐步完善,地方债券规范发行,融资成本不断降低,国有企业资产雄厚,融资平台有一定盈利,这些都增强了我国政府的负债能力。   根据不同的利率水平、GDP增速以及赤字率等条件,盛松成通过建立数据模型对我国政府负债率作了三种情况测算,分别是基准假设下政府负债率的预测;地方政府负债增加情况下政府负债率;政府负债率情景分析。   比如,在地方政府负债增加情况下政府负债率测算中,在2015年地方政府债务限额15万亿元的基础上,盛松成为降低市场对地方债低估的疑虑,假设2015年末的地方政府债务余额比限额增加10万亿元,达到26万亿元,由此得到2015年末的政府负债率为53.6%。以此为基础,而其他参数维持基准假设不变,对未来政府负债率进行预测。结果表明,2025年末我国政府负债率为71.8%(见表5),也低于主要发达国家的水平。   综合三种情况,盛松成对我国政府负债率的测算表明,未来一段时期,将我国的赤字率扩大到4%的水平,仍可以将2025年末我国政府的负债率控制在70%以内,并不会给我国政府带来较高的偿债风险。   《可较大幅度提高我国财政赤字率》一文的最终结论是,在未来较长时期内,可将我国财政赤字率提高到4%,甚至更高水平,这将为减税、推进供给侧结构性改革创造条件,有利于发挥积极财政政策的作用。   不过,为防控财政风险,财政赤字并不能一味扩张。此前财政部财科所所长刘尚希表示,中国的赤字提升有一定空间,但空间有限。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: