Haitong Securities Although the downturn in the economy soared to the real estate financing flows 81sese.com

Haitong Securities: Although the economic downturn in the real estate capital flows to the real estate funds have gone? In a series of studies on liquidity source: WeChat public number Jiang Chao macro bond research Abstract: over the past two years, Chinese economic downturn, but the money supply growth rate is still high, social financing is not low, we have to ask: where did the money go? How does money flow in the real economy? The current financing structure can continue? This topic by layer to explore these issues. Despite the economic downturn, the sharp rise in financing. Money supply: a big change in the way, the growth rate is not low. Since 15 years, affected by the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate, foreign exchange increased pressure to reduce the impact of the monetary base in China is in the overall contraction of the central bank to ensure sufficient liquidity in the market, cancel the deposit ratio limit, while continuing to drop quasi monetary multiplier soared, M2 growth rate is still high. Another feature of the money supply, M2 and M1 between expanding unit demand deposits trend. Money demand: Although the downturn in the economy, financing is high. RMB loan balance rose from 14% to a high of $16%, although after the fall, but still not lower than the economic growth rate. Net issuance of government and corporate bonds from the level of about 500 billion per month, soared to more than the current level of more than 1 trillion. Therefore, the overall scale of financing in China is growing in volume. Since the economy is in the doldrums, we can not help but ask: where have all the money gone? Sector differentiation: from residents to businesses, the government accelerated liabilities. Residential sector leverage, capital flows to real estate. By the end of the sale of real estate fire tropical movement, residents purchase enthusiasm, leverage significantly improved, the loan balance growth rate of 20%, of which the long loan (more than 80% of the mortgage) growth rate of more than 30%. At the same time, the total growth rate of residents deposits showed a downward trend, and the current rise or fall. And financial management, stock, scenery is no longer, can not explain the growth of residents deposits downturn, the purchase of hot is the main reason. Weak demand for corporate finance, deposit lending fell. 15 years since the first half of the first half of the first half of the first half of this year, the growth rate of corporate loans fell below 10%, the first time the industrial enterprises fell below 3%. Despite the industry debt net issuance scale soared, but it is difficult to cover up the traditional industry financing demand is still weak. On the other hand, the growth rate of corporate deposits all the way up to the current 17%, of which the largest contribution to the real estate business. Therefore, the real estate sales boom is a major reason for the rise of residents’ deposits or deposits, corporate sector loans or deposits rose. Steady growth pressure, government departments and leverage. Downward pressure on the economy in the larger context of the rapid increase in leverage government departments, since the beginning of this year, the broad government debt ratio has increased by 9 percentage points. If you continue to follow the current rate of leverage, the government will be able to raise the debt ratio of nearly 0.5 percentage points per month. Regional differentiation: lending capacity to enhance the first-line real estate suction gold. Deposit caliber adjustment to enhance the first line lending. At the end of 14, the central bank announced the interbank deposits as a general deposit, plus 75% of the loan deposit ratio limit is canceled, the ability to greatly improve the bank lending first-tier cities. And other urban deposits in the 15相关的主题文章: