Real estate bubble is how big Central bank how to see

Real estate bubble is how big? The central bank to see how Cheng Kai has always had an idea, the best China financial column written, not all the financial big coffee, but the central bank quarterly monetary policy report writer, a long time, in the professional report, they always did not forget to add a few small column, easy to understand concise text. The market is most concerned about the issue, the central bank directly gives the answer. This time, let the market attention to the column of "3 economic operation, monetary policy and structural adjustment", and this small column, we are most concerned about, it is discussed that appeared on the market should be abandoned on the exchange rate, stable prices "or" abandoned housing prices, stable exchange rate ". The central bank’s answer is straightforward, the two views are exaggerating the risks of their respective areas, and it is not a good practice. "An abandoned house prices, exchange rate stability logic" is a monetary tightening, thus crowding out asset bubbles, and with high interest rates to stabilize the exchange rate, which will lead to passive deleveraging, crisis type costly, painful, in fact it is difficult to stabilize the exchange rate; abandon the exchange rate, stable housing prices "is monetary easing to support prices, to low interest rates to stimulate inflation and housing prices, which will also increase the structure distortion and the accumulation of debt, resulting in the adjustment of time longer, more costly. The central bank has its logic, but it is most important to hold what kind of views and logic, because it views and logic, is more important than your views and logic I, directly affect the formulation and implementation of monetary policy. Although analysts carefully, carefully put the central bank three quarterly to sweep again, the number of rare out of the report of the 7 mentioned the word "bubble" and "bubble", the main concern is the real estate bubble. But there are two different questions about the bubble and how big it is. Real estate bubble is not, how much? The central bank has said, the two views are exaggerating the risk of their respective areas, that is, the risk of exchange rate is not so exaggerated, and the risk of the property market is not so exaggerated. Of course, the risk is still need to guard against, but to guard against risk, this is not always a correct statement? How big is the real estate bubble, the central bank how to see? The problem we have an answer, in fact, there is a more important issue, the central bank in the column also gives the answer, most people did not pay attention to, that is, the real estate industry, the central bank is how to see? We said, "with the sustained and rapid economic growth, China’s household wealth especially the rapid growth of housing assets. According to the estimates, since the reform and opening up of China’s residents of financial assets grew by more than 20% per year, while the size of housing assets reached about the size of the financial assets of about two." From an international point of view, the rapid growth of the stock of wealth will have a greater impact on the economy, the relationship between the economy and real estate more closely. As of 1990s the United States after the correlation between monetary index and economic growth weakened significantly, but the relationship between residents’ assets and GDP growth has become more closely, the economic subject can easily carry out mortgage financing, thus significantly increased the liquidity of assets such as real estate, the real estate cycle and economic cycle in a relationship!相关的主题文章: