Restore the data underestimated the truth of China’s economy homefront

The reduction was underestimated the economic data Chinese truth of sina finance opinion leader (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Ren Zeping’s recent return to a neutral monetary policy steady, restricting factors from land prices skyrocketing, deleveraging and the Fed rate hike expectations. In the future, the combination of financial policy oriented, supplemented by currency, force PPP, the impact of this change on the majority of assets are: bond shock, with the financial force related PPP, construction machinery and other stock market opportunities highlight. Reduction is underestimated in the data of China’s economy, the production of 1 of the weak demand for the weak, macro micro good: what is the real economy? Recently, the macro micro data, production demand data appeared to deviate from the weak demand for the production of strong, macro micro good situation. On the one hand, the growth rate of investment and credit cooperatives down. July new RMB loans 463 billion 600 million yuan, an increase of less than $1 trillion and 10 billion. Since the beginning of the year, investment growth continued to decline, manufacturing investment, private investment fell significantly, in July the private investment month negative. On the other hand, the real estate sales, PPP orders increase, industrial production remained stable, power coal consumption remains high, crude steel output high cement, glass prices, construction machinery sales increase, corporate profits especially cyclical industry than expected improvement. August power generation coal consumption growth of 8.7% over the same period, compared with a slight increase in July of $7.1%. 1-7 months, the national scale industrial enterprises realized a total profit of 6.9%, an increase of 1-6 percentage points faster than in the month of, the month of July profit growth of up to 11%. Excavator industry sales in August 4370 units, an increase of 44.9%. According to our research, 2016 credit investment data of severe distortion of social harmony, economic operation of real macroeconomic data is better than the first half of this year, it should be a small period of rebound, currently in the L state has stabilized. Some evidence of 2 economic type L: real estate purchase sales unpopular, PPP force, supply contraction than expected, commodity prices rebounded in 2015, we put forward with real estate investment bottomed out, the future for a long period of time, the economy will be China type L. In 2016 the macroeconomic operation validates our "economic L" judgment: the real estate purchase sales unpopular, PPP force, supply contraction than expected, to the inventory into the end, the rebound in commodity prices. 2.1 real estate sales purchase hot in super currency, low interest rates and policies to encourage residents to increase leverage under the environment of 2014-2016 years of real estate sales, prices soared. The prices rose since the beginning of 2014, 930 new and 1121 interest rate cuts, accelerated from 330 in 2015 and two times in the second half double deal. Real estate sales unpopular with the relevant investment and consumption activities. 2016 1-7 total sales of commercial housing sales grew by 26.4%, the total area of new housing construction grew by 13.7%, total investment in real estate development grew by 5.3%, compared with a sharp rebound in 2015. Hot real estate sales led to the relevant decoration,)相关的主题文章: