Wang Mingcong Hong Kong stock market is expected to go out of the system-660003

Wang Mingcong: Hong Kong stocks rally is expected out of the system: Sina App live on-line blogger of Hong Kong stocks through market mechanism guidance level2 cards by the mainland funds to promote the Hongkong market since April 2015, the emergence of a significant rise in the Hang Seng Index rose to the highest 28588 points, hit a new high since 2007. After cooling, the mainland stock market suffered the dollar interest rate of HK dollar and RMB devaluation, negative factors such as pressure, all the way down to date, the Hang Seng Index during the cumulative decline of 34%, while the Hang Seng H-share index of state-owned enterprises issued by the mainland enterprises of which the cumulative decline is as high as 46% (as of February 17, 2016). However, at the current point of view, we believe that the risk of Hong Kong stocks has been more fully digested. At the bottom of the market is likely to have occurred, is expected after a period of time after bottoming out of the Hong Kong stock rally system. First of all, the market is likely to overestimate the depreciation pressure of the rmb. Since December last year, the rapid depreciation of the RMB and Hong Kong dollar has led to concerns about China’s large-scale capital flight. However, after the announcement of negative interest rates by the Central Bank of Japan, the dollar index is rising and falling because the market finds that the condition of the Japanese government for further easing is extremely limited. But in the world economy is still weak on the occasion, the United States could not do the scenery here is fine, the Fed began to consider changing the planned 2016 rate hike path is one example. The above events indicate that the market may have overestimated the economic performance of the United States relative to other countries, and overestimated the potential of the appreciation of the U.S. dollar, while the RMB has overestimated its depreciation pressure. Second, the valuation of Hong Kong stocks has fallen to the level of the financial crisis. During the 98 Asian financial crisis, the Hang Seng Index fell to 6.6 times the lowest, and fell to 6.9 times in the 08 years of the global financial crisis. Notice that in the history of the world financial crisis, these two crises all belong to the serious crisis of ranking top. Currently, the Hang Seng index is 7.7 times earnings, close to the low valuations of the two crises. The Hang Seng Index also includes some Hongkong and overseas companies, if only look at mainland enterprises, the valuation is more serious pressure. The current price earnings ratio of the Hang Seng enterprises index is only 5.8 times, which is lower than the 6.9 times lower in the global financial crisis in 2008 (98 years, the Hang Seng state owned index stocks are too different from the current ones, which is not suitable for direct comparison). From the dividend rate, the Hang Seng Index and the state-owned enterprise index dividend rate were 4.8% and 5.2%, part of the stock dividend yield is even higher than 7%, while the current domestic 10 year Treasury yield is only 2.8%. Once again, AH share premium climbed to a new high since 2010. The current AH share premium rate is about 140, which means, on average, the same company, the transaction price in the Hongkong market is 30 percent off of the mainland. Over the past 10 years, the average premium rate of AH shares was 118, and the average premium rate in the past 5 years was 110, and the current level has been much higher than the historical average. In addition, the mainland funds continued southward. In the past few months, the scale of the "down south" of the mainland funds has continued to rise

王明聪:港股有望走出系统性上涨行情 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导 港股level2行情 翻看机构底牌   受内地资金推动,香港市场2015年4月以来出现一轮显著上涨,恒生指数最高涨至28588点,创下2007年以来的新高。之后接连遭遇内地股市降温、美元加息、人民币和港币贬值等负面因素的打压,一路下跌至今,期间恒生指数累计跌幅达34%,而由大陆企业所发行之H股组成的恒生国企指数累计跌幅更是高达46%(截至2016年2月17日)。然而,站在当前时点,我们认为港股的风险已经得到较为充分的消化。市场底部很有可能已经出现,预计在经历一段时间的筑底之后,港股将走出系统性上涨行情。   首先,市场很可能高估了人民币的贬值压力。去年12月以来,人民币和港币相继出现快速贬值,引发市场对中国将出现大规模资本外逃的担忧。然而,在日本央行宣布实施负利率之后,美元指数非升反降,原因在于市场发现日本政府未来可供进一步宽松的条件极为有限。而在各国经济依旧颓靡之际,美国也无法做到风景这边独好,近期美联储开始考虑改变原先计划的2016年升息路径便是例证。以上事件表明:市场此前很可能高估了美国相对于其他国家的经济表现,进而高估了美元的升值潜力;对人民币,则高估了其贬值的压力。   其次,港股估值已跌至金融危机时水平。98年亚洲金融危机时恒生指数市盈率最低跌到6.6倍,08年全球金融危机时最低跌到6.9倍。须知在世界金融危机史上,这两次危机都属于排名居前的严重危机。而当前恒生指数市盈率为7.7倍,已经接近上述两次危机时的估值低点。恒生指数尚包含部分香港和海外公司,如果单看大陆企业,则估值被打压的更加厉害。恒生国企指数当前市盈率仅为5.8倍,已经低于2008年全球金融危机时6.9倍的低点(98年恒生国企指数成份股与当前差异太大,不适合直接做比较)。从股息率来看,恒生指数和国企指数的股息率分别为4.8%和5.2%,部分权重股的股息率甚至高于7%,而当前国内10年期国债收益率只有2.8%。   再次,AH股溢价攀升至2010年以来新高。当前AH股溢价率在140左右,意味着平均而言,同样的一家公司,在香港市场的交易价格是内地的7折。过去10年AH股平均溢价率为118,过去5年的平均溢价率为110,当前水平已经远高于历史均值。   此外,内地资金持续南下。过去几个月来,内地资金“南下”规模持续提升,仅从港股通渠道来看,自去年11月13日以来,已经连续60个交易日呈现资金净流入状态。与沪港通开通初期资金争相“北上”相比,如今港股通“南下”累计净流入额达到1258亿,已然超过沪股通1148亿的“北上”净流入规模。   基于以上四个方面的考虑,我们认为此前压制港股估值的因素正在消除,叠加当前堪比金融危机时的极低估值,香港市场处于底部区域的概率很高,在经历一段时间的筑底之后,未来有望出现系统性上涨行情。   (来源:微信公众号“重阳投资”) 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: